Frost in late spring causes severe ecosystem damage in temperate and boreal regions. We here analyze late-spring frost occurrences between 1959 and 2017 and woody species’ resistance strategies to forecast forest vulnerability under climate change. Leaf-out phenology and leaf-freezing resistance data come from up to 1,500 species cultivated in common gardens. The greatest increase in leaf-damaging spring frost has occurred in Europe and East Asia, where species are more vulnerable to spring frost than in North America. The data imply that 35 and 26% of Europe’s and Asia’s forests are increasingly threatened by frost damage, while this is only true for 10% of North America. Phenological strategies that helped trees tolerate past frost frequencies will thus be increasingly mismatched to future conditions.
The goals of this study are to provide a map of actual habitat suitability (1), describe the relationships between abiotic predictors and the saguaro distribution at regional extents (2), and describe the potential effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of the saguaro (3).
Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions.
The Mediterranean Basin is threatened by climate change, and there is an urgent need for studies to determine the risk of plant range shift and potential extinction. In this study, we simulate potential range shifts of 176 plant species to perform a detailed prognosis of critical range decline and extinction in a transformed mediterranean landscape. Particularly, we seek to answer two pivotal questions: (1) what are the general plant‐extinction patterns we should expect in mediterranean landscapes during the 21st century? and (2) does dispersal ability prevent extinction under climate change?.
Climate change research is an interdisciplinary field, and understanding its social, political, and environmental implications requires integration across fields of research where different tools may be used to address common concerns. One of the many advantages of interdisciplinary approaches is that they open communication between complementary fields, filling knowledge gaps and facilitating progression within both individual fields and the broader field of climate change research.
According to the simulations, the suitable habitat for the key species inhabiting the summit area, where most of the endemic and/or rare species are located, may disappear before the middle of the century. The other key species considered show moderate to drastic suitable habitat loss depending on the considered scenario. Climate warming should provoke a strong substitution dynamics between species, increasing spatial competition between both of them. In this study, we introduce the application of differential suitability concept into the analysis of potential impact of climate change, forest management and environmental monitoring, and discuss the limitations and uncertainties of these simulations.