Dynamic Simulation

Palaeo fire modeling

This is a spatio-temporal simulation of the effect of fire regimes on the population dynamics of five forest species during the Lateglacial-Holocene transition (15-7 cal Kyr BP) at El Portalet, a subalpine bog located in the central Pyrenees region (1802m asl, Spain)

Range-shift simulation

Agent-based model coded with Netlogo to simulate range shift of *Quercus pyrenaica* populations in Sierra Nevada (Spain) using a realistic dispersal model with different levels of complexity.

R package virtualPollen

R package to simulate pollen production of mono-specific tree populations over millennia.

Ecological memory at millennial time‐scales: the importance of data constraints, species longevity and niche features

Paper published in the section "Editor's Choice" of the *Ecography* journal. It received [an award](https://www.dropbox.com/s/oacsy1xqx4omv1b/2019_BMB_Ecography_b_top_downloaded.png?dl=1) for the number of downloads during the 12 months after its publication.

Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter

The Mediterranean Basin is threatened by climate change, and there is an urgent need for studies to determine the risk of plant range shift and potential extinction. In this study, we simulate potential range shifts of 176 plant species to perform a detailed prognosis of critical range decline and extinction in a transformed mediterranean landscape. Particularly, we seek to answer two pivotal questions: (1) what are the general plant‐extinction patterns we should expect in mediterranean landscapes during the 21st century? and (2) does dispersal ability prevent extinction under climate change?.

Simulating potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterranean-alpine ecosystems

According to the simulations, the suitable habitat for the key species inhabiting the summit area, where most of the endemic and/or rare species are located, may disappear before the middle of the century. The other key species considered show moderate to drastic suitable habitat loss depending on the considered scenario. Climate warming should provoke a strong substitution dynamics between species, increasing spatial competition between both of them. In this study, we introduce the application of differential suitability concept into the analysis of potential impact of climate change, forest management and environmental monitoring, and discuss the limitations and uncertainties of these simulations.

Greenhouses, land use change, and predictive models: MaxEnt and Geomod working together

We we develop a methodology predicting the expansion of greenhouses by combining a species distribution model (MaxEnt) and a simulator of land use change (Geomod).