This is a spatio-temporal simulation of the effect of fire regimes on the population dynamics of five forest species during the Lateglacial-Holocene transition (15-7 cal Kyr BP) at El Portalet, a subalpine bog located in the central Pyrenees region (1802m asl, Spain)
Agent-based model coded with Netlogo to simulate range shift of *Quercus pyrenaica* populations in Sierra Nevada (Spain) using a realistic dispersal model with different levels of complexity.
R package to simulate pollen production of mono-specific tree populations over millennia.
Paper published in the section "Editor's Choice" of the *Ecography* journal. It received [an award](https://www.dropbox.com/s/oacsy1xqx4omv1b/2019_BMB_Ecography_b_top_downloaded.png?dl=1) for the number of downloads during the 12 months after its publication.
The Mediterranean Basin is threatened by climate change, and there is an urgent need for studies to determine the risk of plant range shift and potential extinction. In this study, we simulate potential range shifts of 176 plant species to perform a detailed prognosis of critical range decline and extinction in a transformed mediterranean landscape. Particularly, we seek to answer two pivotal questions: (1) what are the general plant‐extinction patterns we should expect in mediterranean landscapes during the 21st century? and (2) does dispersal ability prevent extinction under climate change?.
According to the simulations, the suitable habitat for the key species inhabiting the summit area, where most of the endemic and/or rare species are located, may disappear before the middle of the century. The other key species considered show moderate to drastic suitable habitat loss depending on the considered scenario. Climate warming should provoke a strong substitution dynamics between species, increasing spatial competition between both of them. In this study, we introduce the application of differential suitability concept into the analysis of potential impact of climate change, forest management and environmental monitoring, and discuss the limitations and uncertainties of these simulations.
We we develop a methodology predicting the expansion of greenhouses by combining a species distribution model (MaxEnt) and a simulator of land use change (Geomod).