Araújo et al. have published a response to our piece ‘Species distribution models are inappropriate for COVID-19’1 entitled ‘Ecological and epidemiological models are both useful for SARS-CoV-2’2, in which they defend the idea that ecological models are likely to identify the signature of climate drivers in the R0 of COVID-19 transmission.
In this study, we assess how representative a single charcoal record from a peat profile in small bogs (1.5–2 ha in area) is for the reconstruction of Holocene fire history.
Frost in late spring causes severe ecosystem damage in temperate and boreal regions. We here analyze late-spring frost occurrences between 1959 and 2017 and woody species’ resistance strategies to forecast forest vulnerability under climate change. Leaf-out phenology and leaf-freezing resistance data come from up to 1,500 species cultivated in common gardens. The greatest increase in leaf-damaging spring frost has occurred in Europe and East Asia, where species are more vulnerable to spring frost than in North America. The data imply that 35 and 26% of Europe’s and Asia’s forests are increasingly threatened by frost damage, while this is only true for 10% of North America. Phenological strategies that helped trees tolerate past frost frequencies will thus be increasingly mismatched to future conditions.
Species distribution models are a powerful tool for ecological inference, but not every use is biologically justified. Applying these tools to the COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to yield new insights, and could mislead policymakers at a critical moment.
In this paper we aim to (1) reconstruct the Holocene fire history at high altitudes of the southern Central Pyrenees, (2) add evidence to the debate on fire origin, naturally or anthropogenically produced, (3) determine the importance of fire as a disturbance agent for sub-alpine and alpine vegetation, in comparison with the plant community internal dynamics.
The Eemian interglacial represents a natural experiment on how past vegetation with negligible human impact responded to amplified temperature changes compared to the Holocene. Here, we assemble 47 carefully selected Eemian pollen sequences from Europe to explore geographical patterns of (1) total compositional turnover and total variation for each sequence and (2) stratigraphical turnover between samples within each sequence using detrended canonical correspondence analysis, multivariate regression trees, and principal curves. Our synthesis shows that turnover and variation are highest in central Europe (47–55°N), low in southern Europe (south of 45°N), and lowest in the north (above 60°N). These results provide a basis for developing hypotheses about causes of vegetation change during the Eemian and their possible drivers.
The ongoing pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is causing significant damage to public health and economic livelihoods, and is putting significant strains on healthcare services globally. This unfolding emergency has prompted the preparation and dissemination of the article “Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate” by Araújo and Naimi (2020). The authors present the results of an ensemble forecast made from a suite of species distribution models (SDMs), where they attempt to predict the suitability of the climate for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the coming months. They argue that climate is likely to be a primary regulator for the spread of the infection and that people in warm-temperate and cold climates are more vulnerable than those in tropical and arid climates. A central finding of their study is that the possibility of a synchronous global pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely. Whilst we understand that the motivations behind producing such work are grounded in trying to be helpful, we demonstrate here that there are clear conceptual and methodological deficiencies with their study that render their results and conclusions invalid.
We introduce distantia (v1.0.1), an R package providing general toolset to quantify dissimilarity between ecological time‐series, independently of their regularity and number of samples. The functions in distantia provide the means to compute dissimilarity scores by time and by shape and assess their significance, evaluate the partial contribution of each variable to dissimilarity, and align or combine sequences by similarity.
Paper published in the section "Editor's Choice" of the *Ecography* journal. It received [an award](https://www.dropbox.com/s/oacsy1xqx4omv1b/2019_BMB_Ecography_b_top_downloaded.png?dl=1) for the number of downloads during the 12 months after its publication.
We present a multidisciplinary dating approach - including radiocarbon, Uranium/Thorium series (U/Th), paleomagnetism, single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), polymineral fine-grain infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and tephrochronology - used for the development of an age model for the Cañizar de Villarquemado sequence (VIL) for the last ca. 135 ka.